Thought Leadership
Organizations looking to quickly move away from their mainframes may face a harsh reality by 2030. According to Gartner, most mainframe exit projects will fail because providers are promising more than they can realistically deliver.
More than 70 percent of all mainframe exit projects launched in 2026 will fail to achieve their intended goals, according to a recent analysis by market research firm Gartner. Analysts identify the main cause as a systematic overestimation of generative AI tools’ capabilities when migrating complex legacy systems.
AI Promises Meet Mainframe Reality
“There is a growing gap between the marketing promises surrounding generative AI and its actual ability to transform and migrate complex legacy code,” says Alessandro Galimberti, VP Analyst at Gartner. The situation is further complicated by investor pressure, which is pushing many vendors to add AI capabilities to their products regardless of whether these features actually improve outcomes.
Galimberti warns of a “perfect storm” of risk factors: the business-critical nature of mainframe applications, a growing shortage of experienced mainframe specialists, and poorly planned exit strategies are significantly increasing the challenges. Failed migration projects do not only lead to cost overruns but could also put the ongoing operations of entire organizations at risk.
Vendor Market Faces Major Consolidation
Beyond the failure of individual projects, Gartner expects a fundamental transformation of the vendor landscape. By 2030, 75 percent of providers specializing in mainframe exits are expected to either fundamentally change their business models or shut down operations entirely. Analysts attribute this to declining demand for one-size-fits-all migration solutions and customers gaining a more realistic understanding of what is actually achievable.
At the same time, established providers such as IBM, BMC Software, Broadcom, Rocket Software, and 21CS continue investing in the mainframe platform as a strategic infrastructure component. Managed service providers such as DXC Technology, GTS, and Kyndryl are also expanding their mainframe capabilities, according to Gartner. This suggests the platform is far from becoming obsolete.
Modernization Instead of Migration
Rather than pursuing a complete exit, Gartner recommends a more differentiated approach. According to the analysts, generative AI is better suited to supporting modernization efforts directly on the mainframe than accelerating migrations to alternative platforms.
The right strategy depends heavily on the size and complexity of each organization’s mainframe environment. For mid-sized environments, which represent the largest market segment, Gartner recommends optimizing existing mainframe investments and pursuing full platform exits only where there is a clear business case.
Smaller environments, on the other hand, could consider Mainframe-as-a-Service as a cost-effective hosting option while focusing on replacing outdated third-party software and implementing targeted modernization initiatives.
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