Thought Leadership
Gartner predicts that by 2029, around 60 percent of organizations will rely on significantly smaller software development teams. Today, that figure stands at just 15 percent.
The driving force behind this shift is the growing use of AI in software development. However, companies expecting AI adoption to primarily reduce staffing costs are mistaken, according to the analysts. Gartner analyst Aliyah Camacho says AI will not eliminate developer roles but instead redistribute responsibilities across teams.
“AI is fundamentally changing software development. It is redefining roles, reinventing teams, and increasing demand for software developers rather than reducing it,” Camacho explains. The resources needed to meet the rising demand for software and complex AI-powered applications will outweigh the efficiency gains generated by AI.
“Tiny Teams” Become a New Organizational Model
According to Gartner, this development will lead to the rise of so-called “Tiny Teams” — lean development units that deliberately combine human expertise with AI capabilities. “Tiny Teams are not a cost optimization strategy,” Camacho emphasizes. “They represent a restructuring of teams to make the most effective use of human and AI capabilities and strengths.”
The size of these teams depends heavily on the product and its requirements. “Today’s Tiny Teams typically consist of four to five members, although some can operate with just two or three people. This will become more common as both employee skills and AI capabilities mature,” says Camacho. “The key is that Tiny Teams must remain small enough to stay agile and effective, while being large enough to encourage diverse ideas and alternative perspectives.”
For this model to succeed, Tiny Teams require support from robust platform engineering teams that provide standardized, automated workflows and self-service AI tools. This allows smaller teams to focus on high-value activities instead of operational complexity.
Gartner Warns Against Cutting Entry-Level Talent
A key finding from the study is that Tiny Teams require versatile, highly skilled professionals, including roles such as product managers, UX/AX (Agent Experience) designers, and at least one software developer with AI expertise. Traditional role boundaries are increasingly disappearing as team members take on a broader range of responsibilities — from analyzing business objectives and designing products to managing AI agents.
However, Gartner explicitly warns companies against reducing investment in early-career talent as a result of this shift. “Slowing down junior-level hiring could create significant challenges, including disrupting knowledge transfer, weakening internal talent pipelines, and limiting recruitment to more expensive and highly competitive senior positions,” Camacho says.
The analysts expect that organizations using AI primarily as a reason to reduce junior developer roles will weaken their own software development talent pipelines by 2028.
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