Thought Leadership
Surging memory and CPU costs are squeezing the notebook industry. According to TrendForce, mainstream devices could become significantly more expensive.
The global notebook market is heading into a difficult year in 2026, with weak demand colliding with sharply rising component costs. That is the conclusion of a recent analysis by market research firm TrendForce. Beyond significantly more expensive memory modules, CPU prices have now also begun climbing, with noticeable consequences for consumers.
Memory prices blow up the cost structure
Since the start of 2026, the supply situation for DRAM and NAND flash has deteriorated considerably. Prices have risen sharply, and shortages of individual components are becoming more frequent, making procurement planning increasingly difficult for notebook manufacturers.
As a reference scenario, TrendForce modeled a mainstream notebook with an MSRP of 900 US dollars from the first quarter of 2025. Under normal market conditions, DRAM and SSD together account for roughly 15 percent of bill-of-materials costs. After several quarters of steep memory price increases, that share is projected to exceed 30 percent in the first quarter of 2026. To preserve existing margins across the supply chain, retail prices would need to rise by more than 30 percent on memory costs alone.
Intel raises CPU prices, AMD feeling the heat
Memory costs are not the only problem. According to TrendForce, Intel has already raised prices on certain entry-level and older notebook processors by more than 15 percent, with further increases planned for mainstream and higher-end platforms in the second quarter of 2026.
Since CPUs already represent one of the largest cost items in notebook manufacturing, these increases compound the pressure considerably. If rising memory and CPU prices are combined, their joint share of total bill-of-materials costs could climb from around 45 to approximately 58 percent, which would account for the near 40 percent retail price increase mentioned above, assuming brands and retailers maintain their existing margins.
Shortages go beyond pricing
Beyond pure price increases, supply stability is also beginning to falter. Growing demand for AI computing workloads means that advanced manufacturing and packaging capacity is increasingly being reserved for high-performance products. Entry-level CPUs are being pushed to the back of the queue, and availability on certain Intel platforms in the lower price segment is tightening as a result.
Large notebook manufacturers with long-standing supplier relationships and high order volumes are likely to secure stable allocations and more favorable terms. Smaller vendors, by contrast, face greater risk of being hit by price increases and supply shortages simultaneously.
AMD is not immune to the situation either. While many manufacturers have recently shifted toward multi-platform strategies, boosting AMD’s market share, reports now indicate emerging shortages on some AMD entry-level platforms as well.
TrendForce concludes that memory supply conditions and CPU pricing strategies over the coming quarters will be the decisive factors shaping the global notebook market, both in terms of shipment volumes and the competitive standing of individual manufacturers.
